Greater Western Sydney Giants

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gyfox
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by gyfox »

Picking 1988 as a start date for consideration of the Swans is very selective. They had already proved the market by averaging just under 26k a game in 1986 so getting the same in 1996 is what you would expect when the team performed well again. This level of potential support had been proved in Sydney by the initial test competition games in both 1952 and 1979, 24k average, and it was this level of potential support that led the VFL to move South Melbourne to Sydney. What these test games and those in 1980 and 1981 proved is that there was a significant latent market for the code in Sydney with crowds up to 25k possible.

The plant of GWS in no way can be compared to the experience of the Swans even in their start up years because unlike the case of the Swans there is no significant latent market waiting for them. They have to extend their market from the 8k attending now by in the main winning non AFL fans to the game.

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yob
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

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gyfox wrote:Picking 1988 as a start date for consideration of the Swans is very selective. They had already proved the market by averaging just under 26k a game in 1986 so getting the same in 1996 is what you would expect when the team performed well again. This level of potential support had been proved in Sydney by the initial test competition games in both 1952 and 1979, 24k average, and it was this level of potential support that led the VFL to move South Melbourne to Sydney. What these test games and those in 1980 and 1981 proved is that there was a significant latent market for the code in Sydney with crowds up to 25k possible.
From my records:

1953: SANFL Rd8: Norwood v North Adelaide, 19,702

Just because I'm a stat collector.

One issue that muddies the waters about the Swans early crowds is that the Swans name turned off the already established aussie rules community. The brand was rejigged to offer glamour, high marks and tight shorts to broaden appeal. The public supported the winning team in a big way - 2 seasons 20k+.

There is indeed significant correlation between wins and crowds for the Swans, but there's also other up/down side factors that tugged at the equilibrium.

To infer that this can be copy pasted on to a fledgling second franchise, without considering the context, is kindergarten grade.

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yob
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

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Boba Fett wrote:*facepalm*
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4031

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Simmo79
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by Simmo79 »

Second bite at the cherry is the right idiom for this strategy

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Simmo79
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by Simmo79 »

Boba Fett wrote: Except that the Swans had already built up their crowds the year before the single Super League season of 1997.
Silly boy. The Super League war didn't begin in the off-season before the 97 season. It started in 94, escalated through 95 and was in full effect in 96 and 97. 97 was the only year with formally divided comps, but the sport had been tearing itself apart for two years previous. The wanker clubs thought they were better than everyone else and formed their own league, players got paid way more than they were worth, there was unprecedented jumping between teams - everyone's perception of what RL was about was just plain shattered over those 3 years.
Boba Fett wrote: And I'm not sure there's too much evidence that large numbers of people jumped not only teams, but codes as well.
Me. I did. n=1 and all that but I jumped over to the Swans at the arse end of the '95 season. Me and 4,000 others at the SCG saw Richard Osborne score a goal for the dogs from the point where the 50 meets the boundary line in the forward right pocket. I haven't been back to RL since. It doesn't help that Norths were killed off in this era as well.

RL pretty much lost the NSW bourgeoisie in that period. Rape allegations, drug-dealing, drug-taking, and every variation of drunken scatological behaviour since have kept us with the Swans, Waratahs and football ever since.

Gyfox probably has a better bead on it than me, but I reckon RL's market share has really dropped a lot over the '94 to '14 period. Averages may have increased but its competitors have chipped away heaps more.

BTW Boba, are you really a Sydneysider? - why would you need all this explained to you? Maybe you're under 25? If you'd lived in Perth at the time, then I'd understand why it would be news to you...

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by gyfox »

The earliest attendances I have for Football is 1995 and Union data is sketchy then so for what its worth in that year NRL had an 67% share of the Sydney football attendance market, Football had an 17% share, AFL had a 10% share and Union had a 6% share. In 2013 NRL had a 55% share, Football had a 25% share, AFL had a 12% share and Union had an 8% share.

NB. I've corrected the 1995 figures. I used total attendance at NRL instead of Sydney attendance. There are a few attendances missing for Union and League but they would only make a few % difference at most.
Last edited by gyfox on Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Simmo79
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

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See!

wait, does that include rep football? Origin, Wallabies, Roos?

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

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2013 includes everything. Missing attendances in 1995 would increase NRL and Union slightly.

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Egan
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by Egan »

Boba Fett wrote:
Egan wrote:
Boba Fett wrote:Sigh...

For the millionth time - the AFL is taking a a very long term view with the Giants. Yes, giveaways aren't sustainable, but this is not a (historically) typical expansion team where there is a existing demand. The Giants with the assistance of the AFL are building demand with the introduction, development and growth of the team. This will take 10-20 years.

Not sure how many times this needs to be explained to people... :roll:
For the millionth time in my counter-punch is that crowds were below what they expected in season one, so if they are below expectations in season 1 how can the AFL have any expectations for 20 years time?
Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

So I would expect the Giants' crowds to be poor for the next year or so, but once they start winning more games than they lose and make the finals a couple of times, watch the crowds jump significantly. In fact, here's a prediction - crowds will be at least 15k average in 2016.
When the models for season one expected there to be more fans to watch a sh*t team than there has been, I have no trust in the same modelling done for the next ten years.

They are in an absolute quagmire and as others have said we don't know what their peak support base is. The 11,000 for game one of their existence would have had the hype noobs and bandwagoners. The NSW derby was always going to be played at Homebush...now we don't even see the showgrounds selling out.

I would love to see what documents on visitor numbers, crowd attendances that the AFL showed the NSW government to justify the expense on upgrading the showgrounds...

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DH
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by DH »

Finally a debate where my hours of time spent analysing Australian crowd data over recent years can be used to add to an interesting (and meaningful) debate.

On average, Sydney NRL crowds dropped by 2,000 per game from 1994 to 1997. In total they dropped by 228,283 in a season from 1,379,481 in 1994 to 1,151,198 in 1997. Please refer to graphs below.

Over the same period the Swans increased by 286,044 in a season from 107,955 in 1994 to 393,999 in 1997. It should be noted that the Swans have never beaten that regular season aggregate attendance record since and now typically produce around the low-mid 300k per season. Meanwhile yearly Sydney NRL attendance are back at 1.5 million per year.

Sure not all 228,283 NRL goers in 1994 flipped to the Swans, but a huge number did as has been discussed here. And it's likely many of them have returned to NRL matches after they had their taste of AFL and the NRL slowly started pulling itself out of the social gutter.

Goes to show stat counting and lived experience supports the impact the Super League War had on boosting the Swans crowds, and that the Giants are unlikely to ever receive a crowd boost like that, no matter how successful they are on the field.

Image
Image
Note: 2013 stats are incomplete.

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by Boba Fett »

Simmo79 wrote:
Boba Fett wrote: And I'm not sure there's too much evidence that large numbers of people jumped not only teams, but codes as well.
Me. I did.
Wow. So you're extrapolating general population behaviour trends from your individual experience? Oh dear...

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by Boba Fett »

DH wrote:Finally a debate where my hours of time spent analysing Australian crowd data over recent years can be used to add to an interesting (and meaningful) debate.

On average, Sydney NRL crowds dropped by 2,000 per game from 1994 to 1997. In total they dropped by 228,283 in a season from 1,379,481 in 1994 to 1,151,198 in 1997. Please refer to graphs below.

Over the same period the Swans increased by 286,044 in a season from 107,955 in 1994 to 393,999 in 1997. It should be noted that the Swans have never beaten that regular season aggregate attendance record since and now typically produce around the low-mid 300k per season. Meanwhile yearly Sydney NRL attendance are back at 1.5 million per year.

Sure not all 228,283 NRL goers in 1994 flipped to the Swans, but a huge number did as has been discussed here. And it's likely many of them have returned to NRL matches after they had their taste of AFL and the NRL slowly started pulling itself out of the social gutter.

Goes to show stat counting and lived experience supports the impact the Super League War had on boosting the Swans crowds, and that the Giants are unlikely to ever receive a crowd boost like that, no matter how successful they are on the field.

Image
Image
Note: 2013 stats are incomplete.
GOing on your first graph, apart from a standout year in 1994, there really wasn't much variation in the Sydney NRL crowds from 87-97. It was really from 1999 that there was a significant and sustained crowd boost. So what could have been the reason for that? Probably the opening of the Olympic Stadium.

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yob
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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

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DH wrote:Goes to show stat counting and lived experience supports the impact the Super League War had on boosting the Swans crowds, and that the Giants are unlikely to ever receive a crowd boost like that, no matter how successful they are on the field.
Let's be clear here. There's value in stats. I collect hideous amounts of data, I wouldn't if they were useless. :lol:

Stats do not predict the future. They don't do so for a simple reason - you can't predict the future. In depth analysis of stats enables you to draw inferences about the past. It hones your ability to ask the right questions. It allows you to test variables. We don't model facts, we model assumptions. But whether or not it's of any use for the future depends on whether all of those variables, and only those variables, repeat in exactly the same way. They won't. The closest you can get is to ask educated questions of particular variables. If you're really lucky you can do the trifecta - learn what was a mistake, why it was a mistake, and avoid making it again.

There's a large number of variables here. Sydney has 1.5 million more people. We consume a wider range of media. Kids are fatter and apparently more sexualised. The planet is warmer, and the rain's weird now. We're more affluent. It's okay to be gay now. We play in the fifa world cup and suck at Olympics now. There's more traffic.

None of these individual variables means a lot on its own. But they all mean something. If you master the skills of valuing individual variables, weighting them, and pricing them, then you're a very valuable man. I would hire you, instantly, but I can't afford you. If you can also model and price risk then I'm likely not even allowed to drink at the same bar as you.

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by bazza »

Boba Fett wrote: Except that the Swans had already built up their crowds the year before the single Super League season of 1997.

And I'm not sure there's too much evidence that large numbers of people jumped not only teams, but codes as well. League attendances dropped a little from 96-98, but after that it's been onwards and upwards.
The effects of Super League were felt in 1995 and 1996
The original Super League season was going to kick-off in 1996 - but did not due to court action.
The Super League teams in the ARL forfeited the first round of 1996
In 1995 - Super League signed players were not selected for that years State of Origin series

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Re: Greater Western Sydney Giants

Post by bazza »

Boba Fett wrote: GOing on your first graph, apart from a standout year in 1994, there really wasn't much variation in the Sydney NRL crowds from 87-97. It was really from 1999 that there was a significant and sustained crowd boost. So what could have been the reason for that? Probably the opening of the Olympic Stadium.
From the graph crowds gradually rose from 1987 from 10,000 to about 14,000 then dropped down in 96-98
'99 would have had a spike due to the olympic stadium with a few 100k plus crowds
Sustained growth from 2000 onwards would be due to:
a. winning back fans lost in that 95-98 period
b. winning back fans lost to mergers/getting rid of low drawing teams (Wests, Balmain, Illawarra)
c. a proper strategy of growing memberships

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