Austadiums Forum

Boba Fett wrote:

Egan wrote:

Boba Fett wrote:Sigh...

For the millionth time - the AFL is taking a a very long term view with the Giants. Yes, giveaways aren't sustainable, but this is not a (historically) typical expansion team where there is a existing demand. The Giants with the assistance of the AFL are building demand with the introduction, development and growth of the team. This will take 10-20 years.

Not sure how many times this needs to be explained to people...

For the millionth time in my counter-punch is that crowds were below what they expected in season one, so if they are below expectations in season 1 how can the AFL have any expectations for 20 years time?

Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

So I would expect the Giants' crowds to be poor for the next year or so, but once they start winning more games than they lose and make the finals a couple of times, watch the crowds jump significantly. In fact, here's a prediction - crowds will be at least 15k average in 2016.

You make a very good point...

I remove the Victory derby crowds from the Melbourne City Fart average when I debate their fans... just to razz them up a little

The Canberra point raises another significant issue that we've skipped. The Swans are their main competitor and have structural advantages that the Giants just can't replicate (yet). Swans have had 30 years to soak up the available AFL support in Sydney but also have something in the order of 10k members in Melbourne. The Melbourne presence is gold for their bottom line. And they don't have to sacrifice anything to get it. It's a straight bonus.

Giants chasing Canberra on top of Sydney is not the same. They've had to trade 3 home games to Canberra to get that second city presence - and it doesn't add anything to their membership/gate receipt total. They just trade off revenue from Sydney for Canberra. The real benefit to Canberra is the $2.5m p.a. subsidy from the ACT govt. That does work in their favour but I tend to think that the two-city strategy is more of a strategic disadvantage.

The Swans playing 12 games in Sydney a year (not including finals) and the Giants just 9 is a big advantage for the Swans in maintaining their local dominance and ability to grab the new fans that are created in town.

It sounds critical, but we must acknowledge that rent seeking from the public purse is an element of their business strategy. If Canberra stops paying they'll consider moving to Sydney. If Canberra pays more, they'll consider moving more games to Canberra. Wagga wants to buy a game, off they go.

Rent seeking is a dirty word in some circles, but if you can reliably predict it, and if it's a stable revenue source, you'll take it. Especially when your brand is young and malleable.

Pay that. The Canberra subsidy is a 10 year contract so it can be relied on. Not sure that it will get renewed at such a valuable level but that's the next Government's decision.

Boba Fett wrote: Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

A person who knew a slight amount about professional sport in Sydney would believe that bandwaggoning is an immutable rule. But it isn't.

We still have no evidence of a large untapped Giants fanbase that's out there waiting for the team to win before they get out to Homebush. There's lots of wishful thinking and casual contempt for Sydneysiders' interest in sport, but no evidence of actual interest in the Giants.

The AFL has actually created a tidy market for "interstate" match purchases. And it's much like the diamond industry/cartel - the price is kept high through an artificial scarcity, even though the underlying resource is wildly abundant. If the AFL doesn't like Canberra's offer they'll test the market, and maybe take a couple of matches off the block to fatten the margin.

Governments will always pay a high price for this stuff, because public servants equate public financial losses to social benefits. And if you disagree then obviously you've never had a brod burger.

Still haven't been to brodburger.

The cash from the ACT is good for them, but there's a danger that it's more of a sugar hit, than good nutritious protein. If they want to compete in Sydney against the Swans and the other *counts on fingers* 17? professional sports clubs they actually need to play games in Sydney. A lot of their critics don't like the appearance of trying to be a Canberra team too, but for mine the real issue is opportunity cost. I'm not sure how to calculate the impact on their Sydney profile but it can't be positive.

Simmo79 wrote:

Boba Fett wrote: Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

A person who knew a slight amount about professional sport in Sydney would believe that bandwaggoning is an immutable rule. But it isn't.

We still have no evidence of a large untapped Giants fanbase that's out there waiting for the team to win before they get out to Homebush. There's lots of wishful thinking and casual contempt for Sydneysiders' interest in sport, but no evidence of actual interest in the Giants.

What evidence would you expect to see, given they've won 7 games in nearly 3 seasons?

Rob wrote:

Simmo79 wrote:

Boba Fett wrote: Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

A person who knew a slight amount about professional sport in Sydney would believe that bandwaggoning is an immutable rule. But it isn't.

We still have no evidence of a large untapped Giants fanbase that's out there waiting for the team to win before they get out to Homebush. There's lots of wishful thinking and casual contempt for Sydneysiders' interest in sport, but no evidence of actual interest in the Giants.

What evidence would you expect to see, given they've won 7 games in nearly 3 seasons?

Ah yes, the "prove my point by not naming something that doesn't exist" strategy.

I'm far too good at Internet to be suckered by that ploy.

Central Coast Rays won the ARC in 2006. Crowds were still sh*t.

If nobody wants the product, winning won't sell it.

dibo wrote:Central Coast Rays won the ARC in 2006. Crowds were still sh*t.

If nobody wants the product, winning won't sell it.

And very few in their member specific regions of Western Sydney/Canberra/Wagga/RSPCA/British Columbia/Siberia - want the product.

Rob wrote:

Simmo79 wrote:

Boba Fett wrote: Because anyone who knows the slightest bit about professional sport in Sydney would know that once a team starts winning, the crowds follow. Doesn't matter what sport you choose, it's always the same.

A person who knew a slight amount about professional sport in Sydney would believe that bandwaggoning is an immutable rule. But it isn't.

We still have no evidence of a large untapped Giants fanbase that's out there waiting for the team to win before they get out to Homebush. There's lots of wishful thinking and casual contempt for Sydneysiders' interest in sport, but no evidence of actual interest in the Giants.

What evidence would you expect to see, given they've won 7 games in nearly 3 seasons?

They have every single game on FTA. More than any other club in Sydney, in any sport, except the Swans. I'd expect to see solid TV ratings if people were interested in them.

A few bumper stickers wouldn't hurt either.

Simmo79 wrote: They have every single game on FTA. More than any other club in Sydney, in any sport, except the Swans. I'd expect to see solid TV ratings if people were interested in them.

Outside of NRL in Sydney and Brisbane, AFL in Perth Melbourne and Adelaide and cricket, sport on FTA generally doesn't rate (bar big events).
Look at A-League games on Friday nights as an example. They were getting 60k or so *nationally* on SBS after the first few weeks. Or even the Swans - they only get around 50k average figures in Sydney on 7mate, yet they get 30k or so at their games.

I'm not suggesting that GWS are going to be locking out fans anytime soon, but until they start at least being consistently competitive then no-one really knows.

SBS would get better ratings if they followed up the live telecast with a foreign movie with some decent rooting